Forecasting App

Supply Plan

Filters + inputs on the left. Graph and table on the right.

Grain: item, store

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Graph

Projected on-hand + reorder lines

Table

Selected series (monthly)

Planning Insights

Top risks, suggested actions, and recommendations.

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This page uses a monthly time-phased simulation. Some inputs (like lead time in days) are bucketed to months.

Term	Meaning
`Projected On-hand`	The blue sawtooth line: simulated inventory over time using `beginning_on_hand` and `ending_on_hand`.
`forecast_demand`	Forecasted demand for the month (monthly bucket).
`beginning_on_hand`	On-hand at the start of the month after adding `receipts` arriving that month.
`receipts`	Quantity arriving this month from orders placed in prior months (after lead time).
`order_qty`	Order placed this month. It is scheduled to arrive after lead time via the pipeline.
`ending_on_hand`	On-hand after consuming `forecast_demand` for the month (0 if stockout).
`inventory_position`	`on_hand + sum(pipeline)`: what you have plus what is already on order.
`lead_time_days`	Supplier lead time input in days (your override).
`lead_time_months`	`ceil(lead_time_days / 30)` (minimum 1). Used by the monthly simulation to time receipts and demand coverage.
`safety_stock`	Buffer stock based on `service_level` and monthly demand variability (scaled by `sqrt(lead_time_months)`).
`reorder_point`	`safety_stock + lead_time_demand` where lead-time demand is the sum of forecast over the next `lead_time_months`.
`target_level`	Order-up-to target: `safety_stock + cover_demand`, where cover demand is the next `lead_time_months + 1` months.
`service_level`	Target in-stock probability (0–1). Higher values increase `safety_stock` and tend to increase ordering.
`moq`	Minimum Order Quantity. If an order is needed, the model orders at least this many units.
`order_multiple`	Order quantity is rounded up to this multiple (e.g., 5 means 825 is valid, 822 is not).
`max_capacity_per_week`	Optional supplier capacity. Converted roughly to monthly capacity as `* 4` and used as an upper bound.
`input_on_hand`	Raw inventory snapshot input (before subtracting allocations/backorders).
`input_allocated`	Units reserved/committed elsewhere (reduces what’s available).
`input_backorders`	Units already owed (past unmet demand) (reduces what’s available).
`starting_net_on_hand`	`max(0, input_on_hand - input_allocated - input_backorders)`: usable starting inventory for the simulation.
`stockout_qty`	How much demand could not be satisfied in that month.
`risk_flag`	`OK` if no stockout, `STOCKOUT` if inventory hit 0 before demand was fully met.